Despite the troubles in the global economy, the worldwide book market is continuing to grow. It was worth $ 75 Billion in 2010, and is expected by Outsell to hit $ 79.4 Billion in 2013.
Digital book sales are still dwarfed by print, but they are beginning to pick up at an increasing rate. Outsell predict that “the percentage of the worldwide book market attributed to e-books will rise from 3.2% in 2009 to 16.1% in 2013”. This rise in digital sales will be at the cost of print. So where in the market are these changes occurring, and what are the factors at play?
Regional differences
There are large disparities in eBook sales figures around the world, and this has much to do with the way that devices have launched at different times in different markets. The Amazon Kindle has been extremely successful in the US (while Amazon does not release specific figures for the Kindle, their overall sales for Q2 2011 grew to $9.91 billion, with much of this attributed to their Kindle store). However, the device been more slowly introduced in Europe (the UK received its first Kindles in August 2010, while the German Kindle only launched in April 2011). While both the UK and Germany have their own dedicated content stores online via Amazon, France is still to receive a Kindle store, or direct sales of the device via Amazon.fr, and thus the smaller French market is shared between Apple with their iBookstore and domestic retailers such as Fnac.
Expansion is therefore much stronger in the United States where the market grew by 76.2% in 2010. As Ronn Dunn, President & CEO of Cengage noted at the Jouve organised ‘April In Paris’ (an international digital publishing conference held in Paris earlier this year), the “digital content market is now worth over $ 1 billion”. It’s not just the so-called ‘e-tailers’ who are profiting. Barnes and Noble is one of the few bricks and mortar stores to succeed in the digital era, and their Nook ereader (especially the color version) has also proved extremely successful.
Apple must also be mentioned. Despite the fact that they had no history of work in publishing before the launch of the iPad, the device quickly became seen as the ideal platform for enriched ebooks. This is a market which will certainly expand.
However Europe is set to catch up. Joerg Pfuhl, CEO of Random House, observed that the projected 2011 growth curve for eBooks sales in Germany matched the American market one year beforehand.
Digital reading is well established in Japan, where large numbers of adults enjoy reading novels on their phones and other portable devices, and there is certainly plenty of potential for growth in markets like China. Dianli Yu, the president of the Commercial Press, one of China’s largest publishers, has spoken about the huge potential for digital content, saying that "the market is huge", with over 800 million mobile phone users in China.
All previous experience seems to indicate that when there is a surge in adoption of ereading devices, which can be seen as a sort of digital ‘tipping point’, then there will be a major increase in eBook sales.
Market segment differences
Print markets are shrinking and digital markets are growing; as different market sectors contract and expand, there will be significant fluctuations, and new winners and losers will emerge over the next few years.
The majority of growth will be in the Consumer Book Market. Most digital reading platforms like the Kindle, Nook, and iPad, have been fairly exclusively targeted at mass consumers. It must also be remembered that for learning, neither ereaders nor the iPad will be the preferred platform for educational content – it will remain PC based. Initiatives like Mind Tap are electronic educational environments which use digital content to create personalized learning pathways.
Nonetheless, as a percentage of the total publishing market, sales of digital content are largest within the professional sector. Businesses have adopted digital formats due to their lower price points and economies of scale. This is another area where we will see major growth, as firms move more of their business data away from costly paper and into digital formats.
What is driving these changes?
Digital technologies can offer significant savings to publishers and wider businesses. There are none of the overheads relating to physical content, and the printing, storage and distribution it requires. However, as with the music industry, customers are demanding to see these savings reflected in retail prices.
This new generation of digital content means that books are available to download wirelessly - they never go out of print, and they can be accessed anywhere. Customers’ reading preferences can also be highly accurately tracked. Power is placed back into the hands of the author and the consumer, and publishers can build up a much clearer idea of what their customers enjoy.
Print on demand technologies also allow publishers to offer customers single copies of a book, without having to commit to costly reprints. These technologies will gain in importance, and will perhaps operate as a stepping stone between digital and paper formats. These sorts of new high quality technologies will bridge the gap between the print and digital worlds, allowing consumers to enjoy content like photographs, which might start life in digital form and end up in a traditionally bound photo album.
Print on demand offers new business perspectives with business models (cartoons, cultural heritage content, personalized books). It’s not just a question of optimizing the back office. Jouve has 30% growth in these areas, which have been opened up thanks to our investments in workflow systems (especially in optimizing the way we process single orders).
How content providers need to respond
Publishers need to move fast to make their titles available in digital formats. With new technologies, content providers will be able to meet unlimited demand with no time delays for popular titles. If you are not in a position to meet your customers’ requirements, and offer them a range of options, then you are likely to be left behind.
The solution is to offer the widest possible range of content via digital, print and print on demand to ensure that consumers can have their book as they want, where they want, and when they want.
The future is uncertain, but working in partnership with other companies can help to create the next wave of opportunities, and can also mean that risk is shared. There is no silver bullet solution, but it’s by offering customers a range of solutions for their content needs that publishers and businesses will succeed during this testing time.