Indian IT outsourcing body NASSCOM has reduced its forecast cumulative growth rate for the Indian IT BPO sector for 2008-09 to 21-24%, a significant fall-off from the 28% growth reported in its year-end results for 2007-08, released this week.

The reduced growth, while still stellar by US and UK standards, is the first evidence of the credit crunch and soaring energy and food bills impacting on the West's outsourcing partners in the East.

While the local economy in India remains strong and largely immune from the economic woes of the past twelve months, NASSCOM clearly sees the beginnings of an impact of reduced customer circumstances and decision-making on order books.

It's a significant issue for the Indian services market: NASSCOM president Som Mittal said that the estimated slowdown in the growth of IT-BPO spending would translate to revenues of $62-64 billion, with $50-billion of that coming from the export sector. Any real downturn in spending there over the next 18 months to two years would hit India hard.

The report comes at a time when many in the broader outsourcing sector are bullish about prospects of increased spending, while NASSCOM's own summary of the situation sees steady, if reduced growth. Its domestic market remains strong, with full-year growth rates for 2007-08 reported as being 26%, with revenues of $11.6 billion.